Game Previews

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

Location

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo

 

Time

8:20pm ET

1:20am Monday UK time   (get used to this folks, we’ve a few of these coming)

 

Coverage

NBC

Game Pass

Chiefs Radio Network

Sky Sports

 

Team Records

Chiefs 4-0

Colts 2-2

 

Last 3 games

12th Jan 2019 Colts 13 @ Chiefs 31

30th Oct 2016 Chiefs 30 @ Colts 14

4th Jan 2014 Chiefs 44 @ Colts 45

 

The story so far

Finally a team that gave the Chiefs a tough game. The Lions are for real, much more so than I thought, and gave a significant test to the undefeated Chiefs. Their D gave Mahomes more trouble than most have and their offence, in particular the run game, gave our defence kittens. Is it a sign of things to come that teams have a blueprint of how to keep it close (I can’t say beat because the Lions lost) or was it just a bit of an off week for the Chiefs?

The Colts have had a bit of an up and down start to the season. Losing to the Chargers in week 1 they follwed it up with tight victories against a couple of ‘meh’ teams in the Titans and Falcons before getting beat at home by the Raiders last week. Instinct tells me that they are another ‘meh’ team, but I thought that about the Lions before last week too…

 

Head to head

Colts leads 16-10

 

Team Leaders

Passing

Att

Cmp

Yds

TDs

Patrick Mahomes

156

106

1510

10

Rushing

Car

Yds

Avg

TDs

LeSean McCoy

40

214

5.4

2

Darrel Williams

17

75

4.4

2

Receiving

Rec

Yds

Avg

TDs

Travis Kelce

24

369

15.4

1

Sammy Watkins

23

365

15.9

3

Demarcus Robinson

14

250

17.9

3

Mecole Hardman

8

167

20.9

2

 

One to watch

Charvarius Ward

He worries me. It seems like he is the CB that teams are going to go after when they are looking for easier completions. He was picked on late in the game last week by Stafford, he had 4 tackles on the last Lions scoring drive and that isn’t because he was playing lights out defence. If TY Hilton is healthy then hope that Ward isn’t covering him. Of course, this week could see the first sighting of Mo Claiborne which may change Ward’s role to back up where I’d be much more comfortable with him.

 

Key Matchup

Marlon Mack v Chiefs run D.

Yeah, the run D looks suspiciously like last year. But on the other hand, 4 games 4 wins. So we can’t stop the run? So what, does it matter? That’s a really hard question to answer. My gut says probably not. Turnovers is key to beating this Chiefs team, not time of possession. A good run game keeps the Legion of Zoom (TM) on the sidelines but when they can cover 95 yards in 3 plays then they don’t need that much time. If the Colts were +2 in turnovers and had 13 possessions to the Chiefs 9, then we’re on for a closer game than if the Colts just held the ball 35 minutes to 25 and both teams had 11 possessions.

That said, the longer the D is on the field the more tired they get and that makes defending anything harder later in the game. Mack is a beast and could be a serious handful and at some point the D has to make some stops in the run game.

 

Injuries

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

PLAYER POS. INJURY PART. WED. PART. THURS. PART. FRI. GAME STATUS
Eric Fisher T Groin DNP DNP DNP Out
Dorian O’Daniel LB Hamstring DNP DNP DNP Out
Tyreek Hill WR Shoulder LP LP LP Out
LeSean McCoy RB Ankle LP FP FP
Alex Okafor DE Hip LP LP LP Questionable
Bashaud Breeland CB Toe FP FP FP
Patrick Mahomes QB Ankle FP FP FP
Sammy Watkins WR Shoulder FP FP LP Questionable
Damien Williams RB Knee FP FP FP Questionable
Xavier Williams DT Ankle FP FP FP
Andrew Wylie G Chest FP FP FP

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

PLAYER POS. INJURY PART. WED. PART. THURS. PART. FRI. GAME STATUS
Parris Campbell WR Abdominal DNP DNP DNP Out
Clayton Geathers S Concussion DNP DNP DNP Out
T.Y. Hilton WR Quad DNP LP LP Questionable
Malik Hooker S Knee DNP DNP DNP Out
Tyquan Lewis DT/DE Ankle DNP DNP DNP Out
Marlon Mack RB Ankle DNP DNP FP Questionable
Darius Leonard LB Concussion LP LP LP Out
Jabaal Sheard DE Not Injury Related (Rest) DNP FP
Rock Ya-Sin CB Hip LP DNP Questionable
Denico Autry DT/DE Not Injury Related DNP
Anthony Castonzo T Not Injury Related DNP
Justin Houston DE Not Injury Related DNP
Rolan Milligan S Knee LP Questionable
Anthony Walker LB Shoulder FP Questionable

 

What they said

Justin Houston

“He’s a special guy. He’s one of a kind,” Houston said. “He’s Pat Mahomes, the throws he makes – he can make every throw, he can see everything (and) he has eyes in the back of his head. He’s a great quarterback.”

What we said

Patrick Mahomes

“Coach Reid puts us in those situations in training camp, but it’s different when you get to live action,” Mahomes said. “I said it after the game, you aren’t always going to win by two or three touchdowns, a lot of times in the NFL you’re going to have to find a way to score at the end of games. Getting into the meat of the schedule and as we keep playing more and more games, we’re going to be put in that situation again, and to have an early instance where we found a way to win is going to be able to help us out a ton in the long run.”

 

Odds

Chiefs by 11 points

Game points 56

I struggle with double digit favourites, even for the Chiefs at home. I can see plenty of points being scored by both sides though

Take the Colts +11 and the over on the points.

 

Prediction

Chiefs 34 Colts 24

 

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