The Road Back

It’s a long season, full of twists and turns. Teams that look good in May could be a train wreck come November and what looks a tough game now could turn out to be a walk over. But we can only go on what we know right now, so here’s a look at the Chiefs road back to the Super Bowl.

Texans (H)
As Champions, The Chiefs have the honour of opening the season at Arrowhead and start #runitback against a team they put up 41 unanswered points against in the Divisional Round sending KC back to the AFC Championship Game.

The Texans are weakened having traded away DeAndre Hopkins for a bag of crisps and another Running Back for Bill O’Brien. But, KC will hope a running back does make headlines in this one, as we will get to see our shiny new set of wheels in first round pick, Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

The Texans did bolster defense with their limited draft capital but that wont concern Mahomes and Co as they bask in their Superbowl glory with or without fans.

Win Probability – 85%

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Chargers (A)

LA Chargers’ GM Tom Telesco revealed that his team would have drafted Tua Tagovailoa if the Miami Dolphins had passed him in the 2020 Draft … but the marine mammals didn’t, so LA end up with Justin Herbert.

Its still unclear whether LA start the season with Herbert or Tyrod Taylor but either can probably do better than their predecessor (Rivers) who threw 6 Ints against The Chiefs last year.

First Round pick, Kenneth Murray makes a scary defence scarier, even then, it remains to be seen whether the other side of the ball can keep up with The Chiefs.
One thing is for sure, The Chargers will feel at home whether fans are allowed in the stadium or not.

Win Probability – 80%

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Ravens (A)
Game of the Year in Week 3 as we get to see the Superbowl MVP go up against the 2019 MVP.

Mahomes v Jackson, could be ‘the’ match up for the next 10 years and after swiping Patrick Queen right from under the noses of KC in the draft, The Ravens are one of the most balanced teams in the NFL.

Pat has had Lamar’s number so far though, with two career wins against the Ravens ‘running’ back, but both games were close, five and three point margins.
Win Probability – 55%

New England Patriots (H)
No point wasting time on such an irrelevant franchise, Chiefs by 100

Win Probability – 100%

Raiders (H)
The Chiefs wannabees still have Derek Carr at QB and he cant play at Arrowhead (0-5), so its very hard to look past KC against a divisional rival.

Henry Ruggs is quick but that will only be useful if Carr can get him the ball and the ‘other’ first round pick, Damon Arnette was widely scoffed at, so KC will remain confident in continuing their AFC West dominance.

Oh, and they’re the Las Vegas Raiders now… Meh

Win Probability – 92%

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Bills (A)
Buffalo away on a short week is one to watch.

The 10-6 Bills of 2019 will be eying up the Brady’less AFC East and looking to go one or two better than their disappointing three point defeat to the Texans in the Wild Card Round.

Win Probability – 60%

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Broncos (A)
After a short week comes a longer rest, we know what Andy can do with a bit of time to prepare so Denver isn’t a bad place to go off a mini bye.
The Broncos on paper are one of the more improved outfits in the league and the Mahomes effect has well and truly taken hold in the AFC West as the Broncos spend their first, two round picks on wide receivers in Jeudy and Hamler. Drew Lock is ‘the’ guy in Denver and they have backed him with Weapons.

Prove it time for Lock.
Win Probability – 78%

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Jets (H)
You would like to think this is one of the more ‘bankers’ on the schedule this season. The Chiefs lost the last time these two met in 2017 no fault of Alex Smith (366 Yards, 4TDs 0INTs) but a lot has changed since then.

The Jets picked 11th in the 2020 draft which kind of tells you where the Jets are, but they have their QB in Sam Darnold and have made moves to protect him with three, free agent O-line acquisitions.
Win Probability – 94%

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Panthers (H)

The Panthers are new look for 2020 with a new Head Coach and QB to boot!

Matt Rhule gets his first shot as a HC in the NFL after a successful stint at Baylor University, meanwhile Teddy Bridgewater has plenty of NFL experience and having had a taste for a starter job after Brees went down in New Orleans, Teddy will want to prove he warrants the $63million contract.

The Panthers are likely to be tough with Christian McCaffrey being a threat and with Chiefs own Edwards-Helaire getting early CMC comparisons it will be interesting to see them on the same field.

Win Probability – 91%

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Raiders (A)

Chiefs first trip to the Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas.
The new 65,000 capacity stadium costing $1.48billion hosts the matchup against the Super bowl and AFC West champions and it could be a while before that changes. The dome is befitting of the Raiders and the evil villain connotations they have, but we all know what happens to the villain in the end … they lose.

Win Probability – 90%

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Bucs (A)

Brady vs Mahomes, Part 4.
Brady has a 2-1 record over Mahomes and has inflicted a couple of heart breaking defeats, notably the AFCCG. However the tides are turning in the NFL and the new age Quarterbacks are taking over. Brady moves to a warm climate in Tampa Bay, but its a long old season and by week 12 who knows what Brady (and Gronk for that matter) will turn up.

Bucs’ move for Brady and Gronk seems to be a boom or bust, win now move. If the Bucs’ are still in contention and high flying this could be a cracker as Mahomes looks to get back to .500 against arguably the greatest QB of all time.
Win Probability 70%

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Denver (H)

We all know the Broncos have more talent this year, but we what we don’t know is how it will all come together on the field. By week 13 we should have a pretty good idea and its probably expected they will be in the hunt to sneak into the playoffs, so this is a sneaky big match up as the Chiefs chase the one seed and a bye.

What we will have, is a lot more tape on Lock. So, expect Spags to have a few things up his sleeve for the first season starter.
Win Probability 78%

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Dolphins (A)
With #TankforTua a success, this could be the sort of range we get to see the Number five overall pick.

The Alabama slingers’ injury concerns makes it likely Chiefs final day hero, Ryan Fitzpatrick starts the season. But by Week 14 we are probably going to start to get a look at the rook’.

Its going to be a tough day for whoever is under center for the Dolphins, especially with Sharks in the water!
Win Probability – 92%

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Saints (A)Drew’s Swansong.
This has been billed as a Super bowl matchup for the last two season but both had obstacles on their way to the Super bowl, (one managing better than the other). This really does feel like the last chance though for Brees as he looks to add another ring to his Super bowl XLIV success 10 years ago.

Patrick Mahomes in a dome is scary tough, this will be one of the most anticipated games of the season!

Win Probability – 55%

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Falcons (H)

The Chiefs head home for the run in at Arrowhead, against the 2016 Superbowl runner ups.
The Falcons have never really recovered from the 28-3 lead they blew in the Super bowl to the Pats and it hasn’t show any sign of improvement coming off the back of a 7-9, unimpressive campaign in 2019.

KC will be looking to add a regulation win to their bye campaign and finish strong.
Win probability – 92%

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Chargers (H)
We all know that it could all come down to this to secure the sole first round bye in the playoffs and we have a rematch of the 2019, week 17 game, Chiefs/Chargers at Arrowhead.

As with Miami, it is very likely we will be seeing Justin Herbert in this one as LA try to decipher what they have in the rookie under center.

Win Probability – 85%

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