Ridiculous Rushes and Improbable Completions – Week 3

Where to begin? So much blame to go around. Let’s break it down into 3 and share a few observations.

Offence

I’m seeing the offence get panned on social media. Receivers can’t get open. Mahomes just not playing well. No rushing game. Let’s take these one at a time.

The receivers had separation. Well, MVS and JuJu and Watson all did. Tight coverage on Kelce isn’t something new. But Mahomes had an Aggressive Throw rating of just 8.6%. That’s throws that he’s making where a defender is within a yard of the receiver at the time of completion. Compare that to week 1 where he was Aggressive on 18% of his throws. Getting close to Kelce has to be considered a basic of trying to stop this offence.

One thing Mahomes was doing was holding on to the ball. His average time to throw was 3.19 seconds, which in NFL terms is an eternity. Possibly happening because Kelce was covered and he was forced to look to second or third reads? This also gave time to the Colts pass rush. Hat tip to Yannick Ngakoue who was far closer to Mahomes than anyone would like an opposition DE to be. Orlando Brown had a rough night on first viewing.

This graphic speaks for itself really. 7 carries for 0 yards is, er, old school Clyde. Chiefs RBs managed one first down on 17 carries. If you take Mahomes out of the rushing equation then you end up with 19 carries for 32 yards. That is unacceptable.

Defence

I can’t be too harsh here. On the whole they played well. Taylor was limited to 71 yards on 21 carries. They created some splash plays including a pair of forced fumbles that lead to 14 points in the first half.

However, they don’t escape criticism completely. With the game on the line you can’t allow a 16 play, 71 yard drive that lasts 8:14 and ends in a Touchdown. Especially when you had them stopped on 3rd and 6 on their own 39 and you concede a 15 yard penalty for trash talking.

Special Teams

Nobody should be writing about Special Teams. If they are, you know you screwed up big time. Let’s just write up a list of the plays and leave it here…

  1. 4-5-IND 39 (13:57) M.Haack punts 53 yards to KC 8, Center-L.Rhodes. S.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by IND-K.Granson at KC 4.
  2. M.Ammendola extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-T.Townsend.
  3. 4-2-IND 2 (7:59) (Field Goal formation) PENALTY on KC, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at IND 2 – No Play
  4. 4-11-IND 24 (13:34) (Field Goal formation) T.Townsend pass incomplete short left to N.Gray.
  5. Penalty on KC-G.Christian, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
  6. 4-7-IND 16 (8:41) M.Ammendola 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-T.Townsend

That’s about as far from Special as you can get.

I think it’s fair to say that Butker can’t come back quick enough. Ammendola is probably getting cut in the morning regardless. It’s clear Andy doesn’t trust him when he runs plays like this.

Taking a play that has a 28% chance of success over a play that has an 84% chance of success is a bold choice. That said, even when it wasn’t successful the Win Probability was still at 75%. It’s just that the improvement in Win Probability by going for it really didn’t justify the decision.

But having said all that, just a final reminder that you’re never really out of the game with Patrick Mahomes at QB.

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